There is now less than an hour left until the release of the US September Core PCE data at 11 PM tonight.

How is the market viewing this? The FedWatch data is quite interesting: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is as high as 87.2%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is only 12.8%. Even more striking is Polymarket, where expectations for a rate cut have soared to 93%.

Looking back two weeks ago, the "no rate cut" voices still outweighed the "cut by 25bp" camp—that period of market weakness was closely tied to this shift in expectations. But recently, the sentiment has changed. The Fed's dovish tone is becoming increasingly apparent, and some macro data is also supporting the path for rate cuts, so market sentiment has heated up again.

What's the key point? This PCE release is the last major data point before next week's FOMC meeting, and it will basically decide what move the Fed will make. Once the data is out, the direction the market will take may become clear.