Don’t be fooled by all the talk about “decentralization” in the crypto market—at the end of the day, everyone’s eyes are still on US economic data. The Core PCE for September will be released tonight at 11:00 PM, and it’ll directly determine whether you can make a little profit on your coins or need to tighten your belt. The market expects 2.9%—this number is the dividing line.

A lot of people might not really understand what PCE is. In plain English: it’s the inflation gauge the Fed cares about most, and it reflects the real situation better than CPI. The Fed uses it to decide whether to adjust interest rates. If rates go down, market liquidity improves, and funds are willing to flow into high-risk assets like crypto. If rates go up? Everyone just puts their money in the bank to collect interest, and crypto takes a hit. Remember when Powell said “rate hikes to the end” last year? Bitcoin immediately dropped 10%—a painful lesson.

Inflation is a real headache. Back in 2022, it surged to 5.15%, and the Fed went on a rate-hiking frenzy. Bitcoin tumbled from its highs, and a lot of people I know are still stuck holding the bag. After sticking it out until 2025, the numbers finally stabilized in the 2.5%-2.9% range, inching closer to the Fed’s 2% target. But then in June, it unexpectedly jumped to 2.8%, and in July, it stayed stubbornly at 2.9%, causing the whole crypto space to go sideways for half a month. Both bulls and bears were too nervous to make a move, staring at the charts all day and questioning their life choices.

Stick around long enough and you’ll notice the data always likes to mess with market expectations. Last time, everyone bet that the number would rise and set up short positions in advance. But the actual data came in 0.1% lower than expected—Bitcoin soared, shorts got liquidated, and $1.4 billion vanished from the market. And then there are the Fed’s “post-game comments.” One time the data matched expectations exactly, people were getting ready to celebrate, and Powell suddenly threw out, “Inflation hasn’t fully improved yet.” The rally immediately got crushed.