#美联储重启降息步伐 Three key events in the crypto market in December are worth close attention, as each time window could trigger significant volatility.

First, look at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 11. Market expectations show an 87% probability of a rate cut. If the policy is implemented as expected, improved liquidity will directly benefit major assets like BTC and ETH. Such policy-driven moves often provide short-term upside opportunities.

Next, caution is needed for the Bank of Japan policy meeting on December 19. If the BOJ decides to raise rates, global capital flows could be reallocated, with some funds flowing back to the yen as a safe haven, which could put short-term adjustment pressure on the crypto market. However, such adjustments also present opportunities for low-entry positioning.

The most critical event is December 26—the year-end Bitcoin options expiry date. This time, about $23 billion in notional value contracts will expire. According to the distribution of open interest, the $100,000 level forms a clear resistance, while a large number of put options are concentrated around the $84,000 area, creating strong support.

Overall, the market is likely to fluctuate in the $84,000 to $100,000 range in December.

Suggested strategies: After a Fed rate cut, watch for an upward move; pay attention to risk control before and after the BOJ meeting; consider phased buying if there’s a pullback near $84,000; gradually take profits as prices approach $100,000 to lock in gains. The key to swing trading is to grasp market sentiment changes at these three time points.

Year-end market movements are usually dominated by policy expectations and capital flows, so making plans in advance is more important than blindly chasing rallies or panic selling.