Last night, the community was in an uproar, with a bunch of people staring at the USDT exchange rate and spamming question marks.

Newcomers were panicking: How can a stablecoin be unstable? But if you look back, Ethereum surged 10% in a single day. Behind this bizarre price action are actually two underlying threads weaving together.

**Thread One: Policy Expectations Are Swinging Wildly**

There are rumors coming out of Washington that the current Fed chair might be replaced, and the successor is said to have an even more aggressive stance on quantitative easing. The market is always quick to react—bets on a rate cut by the end of the year have surged to a 93% probability, and next year could even see a straight 50-basis-point cut. The dollar index weakening is almost a certainty, and the RMB is passively adjusting along with it—breaking 7 might just be the first step.

**Thread Two: Gray Channels Are Being Cleared Out**

Recently, crackdowns on illegal fund flows using stablecoins have intensified. Many funds that used to rely on these channels are now dumping to hedge risk, causing a sudden spike in supply—naturally, the exchange rate can’t hold up under the pressure.

But here’s the interesting part—USDT is dropping, but crypto is rising.

The logic isn’t hard to grasp: once the expectation of dollar depreciation sets in and global liquidity floods the market, crypto assets naturally become a reservoir for capital; once regulatory cleaning is done, it might actually make more room for compliant funds; and most importantly, seasoned players remember a pattern—before every major bull run, the USDT exchange rate usually comes under pressure first, oddly enough acting as a kind of counter-indicator.

Now the market is split into two camps:
One camp is anxiously watching the exchange rate: “If even this isn’t stable, what can we trust?”
The other camp is already crunching numbers: “If I convert at 6.95 now and cash out at 7.3 later, that’s a free 5% spread.”

At the end of the day, the market environment is changing, and your strategies need to adapt. Are you stressing over short-term volatility, or are you looking for opportunities in structural shifts?

When exchange rates are volatile, it’s even more important to pay attention to compliance boundaries. Do you see this as a risk being released or a signal to enter? Share your thoughts.