#美联储重启降息步伐 Reverse Repo Balance Hits Zero! Has Wall Street's Liquidity Turning Point Really Arrived?

Latest data from Delphi Digital shows: the Fed's reverse repo facility balance has dropped from a historical high of $2.3 trillion to nearly zero. What does this mean? Over the past three years, major financial institutions and money market funds have routinely parked idle funds in the Fed’s "safe harbor," allowing the central bank to maintain the pace of bond issuance even while shrinking its balance sheet.

Now, things have changed. With the deposit pool running dry, continued bond issuance will have to directly draw reserves from the banking system—remember the short-term liquidity crisis in the repo market in September 2019? The chain reaction triggered by a continued decline in reserves put the entire financial system on edge. Will Powell’s team let history repeat itself?

Not many options left in the policy toolbox
Looking at past cycles, it's clear that the Fed usually has only two choices at this juncture: either immediately slow the pace of balance sheet reduction, or outright restart its asset purchase program. More importantly, the Treasury General Account (TGA) is also very likely to shrink in coordination—if the two main “liquidity drains” shut off at the same time, it means the $2 trillion of liquidity withdrawn over the past three years will start to flow back into the market.

First sign of net liquidity injection since early 2022! This isn’t a small fluctuation, but a systemic trend reversal. Asset classes that have been suppressed by tightening liquidity over the past few years are now facing a completely different macro environment.

A new variable for the crypto market
Improvement in liquidity conditions always has a direct transmission effect on risk assets. If you compare $SOL ’s current price level with historical trends during liquidity reversals, breaking through $300 is only a matter of time. Of course, this requires patience—real trending opportunities are never about sharp spikes or drops, but about gradually unfolding as certainty strengthens.

At this point, it may be a window to reallocate your portfolio. Don’t wait until the market has already moved a long way before regretting it—when a systemic turning point appears, it’s often the best time to enter.