Someone asked me, why does BTC's candlestick chart always look like a roller coaster?

My answer might overturn your perception—it’s not a “safe-haven asset” at all. On the contrary, it’s the purest indicator of greed. More accurately, it’s a high-magnification lens on the state of US dollar credit.

Let me start with a counterintuitive fact: the crypto world has never been an independent kingdom.

Many people see BTC as something detached from traditional finance, but in reality? Its relationship with the US dollar is shockingly close. Think about it: stablecoins like USDT and USDC circulating in the market are essentially US dollars wearing a blockchain disguise. The main trading pairs are all XXX/USDT, and capital inflows and outflows rely entirely on fiat channels.

So the truth is: BTC price fluctuations mirror the tightening or loosening of US dollar credit. When the Fed prints money, BTC soars; when liquidity tightens, it plunges—reacting several times faster than the stock market, real estate, or gold.

Why does it react so quickly? Because this market is “running naked.”

Traditional markets have countless buffering mechanisms: circuit breakers, market makers stabilizing the market, policy backstops, central bank interventions… What does the crypto market have? Nothing at all. Trading runs 24/7, prices are set globally in sync, and sentiment is transmitted in real time. It’s like having your nerves exposed directly to the air—any disturbance can trigger a violent reaction.

The issuance volume of USDT is, to some extent, the ECG of this market. Newly minted stablecoins flow into exchanges, and prices shoot up; funds are withdrawn and converted back to fiat, and the market immediately stalls. This direct feedback mechanism makes it the best window for observing the state of US dollar credit.