#ETH走势分析 In December, are you watching the Fed? What you really should be wary of is the Bank of Japan—it may be brewing a massive capital shift.

Three monetary policy dramas are unfolding simultaneously: The Fed is highly likely to cut rates by 25 basis points this month and will stop quantitative tightening starting December 1, marking the end of three years of QT. As for the Bank of Japan? The market is now pricing in an 85% chance it will hike rates to 0.75%, up from 50%—which would be the highest rate since 1995. With one side easing off the gas and the other tightening, the global liquidity balance is starting to tip.

Why does Japan dare to act? Domestic inflation pressure has become unsustainable, and the economic data is still fairly robust—these two factors give the central bank confidence. You might think a Fed rate cut would send funds rushing into risk assets, but a Japanese rate hike could intercept that money—creating a natural "reservoir." Capital isn’t stupid; it always chases the highest yield.

How will this combo punch affect markets? US stocks may be suppressed in the short term; in the long run, it depends on whether corporate earnings can hold up. Cryptocurrencies? They’ll most likely get hit first—tightening liquidity is the least friendly to high-volatility assets. US Treasury yields are likely to continue oscillating upward in the short term.

Don’t forget, 0.75% is still considered loose in historical terms. The real variable isn’t “will they hike,” but what kind of policy signals Kazuo Ueda will give after the December 19 decision. That same day, the Fed will also announce its rate cut decision. With two major central banks making back-to-back statements, global capital will realign. What retail investors should do now is focus on the core logic of their assets and not get led around by short-term volatility. $BTC