#ETH走势分析 The market is completely stuck right now. Bitcoin is seesawing around $92,500, while Ethereum just can’t break past the $3,150 barrier. The rebound momentum has clearly stalled, but selling pressure can’t push prices down either—the whole market feels like it’s been put on pause.

The reason is simple: everyone’s waiting for one number.

Tonight, the PCE inflation index will be released. Don’t underestimate this report—it’s the real indicator the Fed is watching, with CPI taking a back seat. Remember, the government shutdown previously disrupted official data for a while, so this is the first formal report since things resumed. Institutional investors, retail traders, and even the central bank itself are all waiting for this result.

How is the market betting? The consensus is that the overall PCE year-over-year rate will rise to 2.8%(, up from 2.7%) last time, with core PCE possibly hitting 2.9%. These numbers might look okay, but the problem is the Fed’s inflation target is 2%! According to Bank of America’s calculations, at this pace, it’ll be impossible to get back within the target range before 2027. In other words, inflation may have been running above target for 55 consecutive months.

The Fed’s rate-setting meeting is next week, and right now, the market is pricing in an 87% chance of a third 25 basis point rate cut. But the key variable is tonight: if the data meets or falls below expectations, a rate cut is almost a sure thing. But if the inflation numbers blow past expectations, this rate-cutting cycle could slam on the brakes.

The US stock market is also under a lot of pressure. The S&P 500 is approaching all-time highs, and the market is split into two camps—one worried that the crazy investment in AI and data centers will backfire, the other hoping a rate cut will keep the economy alive. If inflation really cools, stocks across the board could rally; if the data is ugly, profit-taking sell-offs will come faster than anyone expects.

For the crypto market, the impact is even more direct. Small-cap altcoins and DeFi sectors—these risk assets are the most sensitive to interest rate changes. If tonight’s data looks good, institutions might start building positions immediately; if the data disappoints, the outflow of funds will be so fast it’ll make your head spin.

So this sideways action is the entire market waiting for the referee’s whistle. We’ll know the result tonight.