Tom Lee significantly lowers Bitcoin forecast! Year-end $250,000 target put on hold, market faces reality test

Bitcoin briefly fell below $91,000 on December 5, dropping 1.87% within 24 hours, before a slight rebound. Market sentiment has fundamentally shifted compared to three months ago.

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee predicted in July this year that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of the year. However, with less than a month left in 2025, the market is shifting from early euphoria to a more sober consolidation phase.

01 Abrupt Forecast Change

Tom Lee, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst on Wall Street, has repeatedly made optimistic predictions about Bitcoin. In July this year, he predicted that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by the end of 2025.

His prediction at the time was based on several key factors: accelerated institutional adoption, changes in the macroeconomic environment, and Bitcoin’s growing appeal as an inflation hedge.

By October, he still maintained a long-term bullish outlook, even suggesting an “ultimate valuation” for Bitcoin of an astonishing $1.6 to $2 million. He called the current bull market “the most hated bull market,” believing there was a significant divergence between investor sentiment and market fundamentals.

02 Market Cooling

The market did not develop according to Lee’s script. Entering Q4 2025, Bitcoin’s performance has started to cause concern.

The latest data from December 5 shows Bitcoin prices have fallen below $91,000, down 1.87% within 24 hours. Although there was a rebound, the decline still reached 1.2%, with a quote around $92,300. This is about a 12% pullback from the historical high in August.

The total crypto market cap shrank in tandem, the supply of Bitcoin in a loss position doubled, and many investors are now trapped in losing positions. The market sentiment indicator “Fear & Greed Index” has dropped into the “fear” zone, indicating strong risk aversion and a lack of confidence in near-term trends.

03 Reality Constraints

Facing market changes, Tom Lee has had to adjust his predictions. For Bitcoin to reach $200,000 before year-end would require a nearly 83% gain in an extremely short time.

Although Bitcoin has experienced similar gains in the past, these typically require extremely strong catalysts, such as disruptive regulation, a shift in central bank policy, or unprecedented institutional buying.

A July report from Standard Chartered predicted Bitcoin would rise to around $135,000 by the end of Q3 and reach $200,000 by year-end. At that time, they expected ETF inflows and corporate treasury Bitcoin purchases to be the main drivers.

In reality, the market is paying more attention to macro risks, seasonal weakness, and headline anxiety, rather than chasing new all-time highs.

04 Institutional Expectation Shifts

Major financial institutions and analysis platforms have all lowered their Bitcoin price forecasts:

Citibank has set a baseline scenario of $135,000, with a downside model showing Bitcoin could fall to $64,000 if macro headwinds intensify.

A panel of experts from industry players such as CoinDCX and Finder predicts an average year-end price for Bitcoin between $120,000 and $145,000.

VanEck has adjusted its target price to $180,000, Matrixport forecasts $160,000, and renowned trader Peter Brandt has set a baseline expectation of $150,000.

Compared to these institutions, Tom Lee’s original $250,000 prediction seems especially aggressive. As year-end approaches, he has had to face reality and significantly revise this target.

Mainstream Market Forecast Comparison (As of December 2025)

05 Cause Analysis

Multiple factors have led to the collective adjustment of market expectations and the downgrading of Tom Lee’s forecast. The primary factor is the shift in the macro environment.

The Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals, strong US economic data, renewed concerns about a government shutdown, and large-scale liquidation pressures have caused Bitcoin to fall from its summer highs. At the same time, worries about continued Fed rate hikes, US political gridlock, and fiscal uncertainty are also suppressing market sentiment.

On the technical side, Bitcoin has fallen below key support levels and trading volume has shrunk, indicating weak buying momentum. On-chain data show long-term holders have started to sell, echoing the historical pattern of price declines about 18 months after previous halving cycles.

06 Trader Strategies

In this market environment, traders need to adjust their strategies, shifting from seeking high returns to focusing on risk management and defensive positioning.

Although Tom Lee has lowered his short-term forecast, he and many analysts still believe the $90,000 level is an attractive entry point for Bitcoin. For long-term investors, current prices may offer an opportunity to accumulate positions.

Standard Chartered’s analysis points out that the key difference in this cycle compared to the past is that ETF and corporate treasury inflows may be enough to offset any selling pressure from long-term holders. These institutional inflows are a new driving factor not seen in previous halving cycles.

The market structure has shifted from the frenzy of the first half of the year to the current rational consolidation. For traders watching Bitcoin on platforms like Gate, understanding this shift is crucial.

Outlook

When Bitcoin’s price fell below $91,000 on December 5, trading volume on crypto exchange Gate showed significant volatility. Market sentiment indicators revealed that traders are moving from “greed” to “fear.”

The downward revision of Tom Lee’s forecast symbolizes a shift in collective market consciousness. This once super-bull who predicted Bitcoin would reach $3 million now has to face short-term reality, which may mark the maturing of the cryptocurrency market.

The market is waiting for the next catalyst, possibly the passage of a US stablecoin bill or a shift in global central bank policy. Only such structural changes may be able to restart the engine of market gains.