BTC has dropped a bit again, and the extreme leveraged short positions data from a major exchange just exploded—a bunch of people scrambling to open 100x shorts, afraid of missing out on this "get-rich-quick express."

Every time the market makes a slight adjustment, there are always some who can't hold back. They're not trading—they're giving money away. Think you’ve seen through the trend? In reality, you’re just providing the perfect counterparty for the whales.

Look at historical data and you’ll see these extreme leveraged positions have never been a directional guide; instead, they’re the most reliable contrarian indicator. The market might keep dropping, but what’s the real purpose of this drop? Precisely to liquidate that batch of high-leverage shorts. Only after the liquidation wave passes will the real rebound slowly arrive.

There’s a harsh rule: when retail investors start piling into triple-digit leverage in the same direction, their win rate is basically zero. It’s not that the market is so smart—it’s that this group is so unanimous.

Leverage is a tool, not a gambling device. If you want to survive in this market, first learn to respect it.

To those reading this, I wish you a steady and grounded day.