Tonight, a long-awaited key figure will finally be unveiled—the September PCE data.

This report, which should have been released at the end of October, has been delayed until now due to the previous government shutdown. What the market is anxiously waiting for is essentially one answer: is inflation still sticky? This is directly related to whether the Fed will actually cut rates next week.

To put it simply, once tonight’s data is out, the market will most likely follow one of three paths:

Path 1: If the numbers come in as expected (month-on-month 0.2%, year-on-year around 2.9%), then rate cut expectations will remain solid, and the year-end market trend will continue as planned.

Path 2: If the data comes in lower than expected? Then risk appetite will heat up immediately, and US stocks might directly test previous highs.

Path 3: But what if it’s higher? The market will have to recalculate, rate expectations will be forced to adjust, and a pullback could come quickly and sharply.

This delayed inflation data will truly have a real impact on everyone’s judgment about the Fed’s next move—whether next week’s rate decision will mark the start of a policy shift, or become a tug-of-war thrown off rhythm by the data.

The market is already showing some weakness, but a nighttime rebound after the data release (11 PM Beijing time) cannot be ruled out. When market volatility increases, it’s crucial to keep a close eye on position management and changes in market structure.