#美联储重启降息步伐 Last night the community suddenly exploded—USDT’s OTC price actually fell below 7 RMB!

Many people started to panic: “Even stablecoins aren’t stable anymore?” But what’s more interesting is that while USDT prices were plunging, ETH surged nearly 10% in a single day, and the overall crypto market sentiment was actually bullish. What’s behind this seemingly contradictory trend?

# Two Forces Are Colliding

**First Impact: Dramatic Shift in Monetary Policy Expectations**

Rumors in the market say that the new US presidential team may push for changes at the Federal Reserve, aiming to accelerate the pace of rate cuts. Derivatives market data shows the probability of a rate cut in December has soared to nearly 90%, with a total rate cut of up to 50 basis points expected throughout 2025.

Once the dollar enters an easing cycle, the RMB faces increased appreciation pressure—this is directly reflected in the USDT/RMB OTC exchange rate. Breaking below 7 may not be the end, but rather the beginning of a new trend.

**Second Impact: Stablecoin Channels Tighten**

Recently, regulatory actions targeting illegal currency exchange and capital transfers using USDT have clearly intensified. Some participants, seeking to hedge risks, have sold off USDT, causing a short-term surge in supply and further pushing down OTC prices.

These two forces combined have created the current split market of “USDT price under pressure, crypto prices rising.”

# Why Are Crypto Prices Rising Instead?

Understanding this logic reveals the core contradiction in the current market:

- **With expectations of a weaker dollar, crypto assets become a potential reservoir for global capital.** Once liquidity is released, major coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum are usually the first to benefit.
- **Regulatory crackdowns on the gray area actually pave the way for compliant capital to enter.** After the short-term pain, the market structure could become healthier.
- **Historically, USDT exchange rates often experience short-term fluctuations before a bull market kicks off.** Similar situations occurred at the end of 2020 and early 2023, both followed by major rallies.

# Market Sentiment Has Diverged

New investors seeing USDT fall below 7 immediately react: “Even stablecoins are getting rekt?”

Seasoned players who’ve been through cycles are much calmer: “It’s normal for USDT to be under pressure before a bull market. Swap for USDT now and wait for a rebound to 7.5, that’s an easy 10% gain.”

Some are anxious, others are already positioning.

# How Should We View This Anomaly?

Logically: The monetary policy turning point and the regulatory cleanup—neither are short-term variables. USDT price volatility may continue for a while, but expectations for crypto market liquidity are actually improving.

Operationally: Focusing on exchange rate anxiety is pointless—the key is to look at the trend. If you believe a new cycle is brewing, then today’s volatility is actually a window of opportunity.

Do you think the USDT exchange rate will continue to drop, or rebound soon? Are you in the “panic camp” or the “opportunity camp”? $BTC $ETH $DOGE