#美联储重启降息步伐 USDT to RMB exchange rate has fallen below 6.95—a figure that has prompted many holders to reassess the stablecoins in their hands. Meanwhile, $ETH has seen a single-day increase of over 10%, and Bitcoin is also steadily climbing.

An interesting paradox has emerged in the market: while stablecoin exchange rates are declining, crypto asset prices are on the rise.

**Two threads are intertwining**

First, there has been a subtle shift in the Federal Reserve's policy signals. There are market rumors that Powell may be replaced by Hassett, who favors a more aggressive monetary easing stance. CME interest rate futures show that the probability of a rate cut in December is nearing 90%. If this expectation materializes, pressure on the US Dollar Index is almost inevitable. As the RMB strengthens accordingly, it’s easy to understand why the USDT exchange rate is falling.

Second, regulatory authorities are tightening controls over cross-border capital flows. Recently, in response to illegal fund transfers using stablecoins, relevant departments have implemented stricter inspection measures. After some channels were restricted, there was a short-term increase in USDT selling pressure in the market, and the imbalance between supply and demand pushed the exchange rate lower.

**What’s behind the contradiction?**

While $DOGE and other major coins remain strong as USDT comes under pressure, this actually hints at a shift in capital flows. When a weaker dollar is expected and global liquidity may become abundant again, cryptocurrencies often become a key destination for capital.

Looking back at historical cycles, each bull market was preceded by a period of stablecoin exchange rate volatility. At the end of 2020, USDT’s OTC price once dropped to around 6.8, and in the following months, the market saw a large-scale rally. Of course, history doesn’t repeat itself exactly, but the rhythm is worth noting.

**Different groups react differently**

New investors are easily gripped by panic: “Are stablecoins no longer stable?” Meanwhile, seasoned players who have been through several cycles have already started accumulating USDT at low prices—waiting to sell when the exchange rate returns above 7.2, making a considerable profit just from the spread.

This cognitive gap often creates a window of opportunity when market pricing is inefficient.

**What will you choose?**

USDT breaking below 7 is not an isolated event; it’s connected to monetary policy, regulatory actions, market sentiment, and more. At this point, should you take the opportunity to buy stablecoins at a low price, or continue holding volatile assets? Everyone may have a different answer.

The market never gives a standard answer, only multiple-choice questions.