Recently, I talked with a seasoned player about the market cycle.

I asked her whether the “four-year cycle” theory still holds up these days. She said the pattern is still there, but don’t be too rigid—when it comes to markets, sticking to old rules can easily backfire.

Her take was pretty straightforward: there’s an 80% chance we’ll enter a bear market next year. She suggests everyone prepare for winter in advance and not get too emotionally attached to this market. After all, investing should be based on rationality, not faith.