The market is totally stuck right now—Bitcoin is hovering around 92,500, and Ethereum is stuck at 3,150, unable to move. This rebound has lost steam, but it’s not dropping further either. Why? Everyone is waiting for that data release tonight.

I’m talking about the PCE inflation index. How important is this for the market? Put it this way: the Fed is watching this, not CPI. There was a government shutdown before, official data was missing for a while, and now we’re finally getting the first formal report. Institutions, retail investors, even the Fed itself—everyone’s waiting for this.

What’s the market expecting? Most people predict the overall PCE annual rate will be 2.8% (last time it was 2.7%), and core PCE might be 2.9%. Doesn’t sound high? The problem is, the Fed’s target is 2%! At this rate, Bank of America has basically said don’t expect it to drop back before 2027. If that’s true, it means inflation has been above target for 55 straight months.

The Fed is meeting next week, and right now 87% of the market is betting on a third 25 basis point rate cut. But tonight is key: if the data meets expectations or is lower, the rate cut is basically locked in. If inflation numbers blow past expectations, this rate cut might get put on hold.

US stocks are tense, too. The S&P 500 is close to an all-time high; some people worry aggressive AI and data center investments could cause problems, while others are counting on rate cuts to save the economy. If inflation really comes down, US stocks might see a broad rally; if the numbers disappoint, you can bet some people will start selling.

For our crypto market, it’s even more direct—small caps and crypto sectors are the most sensitive risk assets to interest rates. If the data is good tonight, institutions might start increasing positions; if the data is weak, money will pull out faster than anyone.

So this sideways action is everyone waiting for the referee’s whistle. We’ll see the real result tonight.