#比特币对比代币化黄金 Inflation Data Release Imminent: How Will the Crypto Market Respond?

Tonight at 23:00, the delayed September PCE data—postponed due to the government shutdown—will be released. This indicator has always been a market weathervane: the stock market watches it closely, and the crypto world cannot escape its influence either.

The current market is in a delicate tug-of-war: on one side, expectations of rate cuts are rising; on the other, inflation data may remain stubbornly high. As these forces battle it out, once the data is released tonight, U.S. stocks—especially the tech sector—are likely to experience significant volatility. As a high-risk asset class, crypto’s sensitivity to such macro fluctuations is even greater.

What if the PCE shows inflation remains elevated? That would mean the Fed has to maintain its “higher for longer” tightening stance. In this environment, risk assets as a whole come under pressure, and the crypto market will naturally find it hard to stand alone.

But what if the data beats expectations and inflation clearly falls? The market will often interpret this as “all the bad news is out,” potentially leading to a wave of sentiment-driven recovery. This is exactly the turning point traders are looking for.

For participants, the core tonight isn’t about whether your prediction is right, but whether you can hold the line:

First, use leverage with extreme caution. Volatility before and after data releases often exceeds expectations, and several minutes of wild swings can wipe out all gains from the previous days.

Second, keep a close eye on linkage effects. U.S. stock performance, $BTC ’s real-time reaction, and subtle changes in capital flows are all key signals for judging short-term trends.

Third, stick to your long-term logic. Macro data only disrupts short-term prices; it won’t rewrite the long-term story of the crypto industry. The real allocation opportunities are often hidden in the gaps of these irrational swings.

The more chaotic the market, the calmer your mindset needs to be. Most people lose money not to the market, but to panic and overtrading.

As long as you stay calm at key moments and don’t get shaken out by emotion, you’ll naturally have your position in the trends to come.

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