Tonight at 11 PM, the September core PCE data will be released—the expected value is 2.9%, unchanged from last month. Does no change in the data mean calm waters?

Think again.

The real game isn’t in the numbers themselves. Remember what happened around this time last year? The data came in as expected, matching everyone’s forecasts, and what happened? The market plunged 5% in the blink of an eye, with a bunch of people panic-selling and exiting. Meanwhile, those who had positioned themselves in advance quietly bought the dip.

This isn’t luck—it’s a carefully crafted expectations game, using seemingly uneventful data to create violent market swings. The goal is simple: shake out the weak hands.

So what should retail investors do?

Don’t fixate on that 2.9% figure. The key is to watch the market’s real reaction after the data is released. If the data meets expectations but prices suddenly spike down? Don’t panic—this is likely the last shakeout opportunity. On the other hand, if the market stays completely still after the data drops, be extra cautious—the storm often hits when things seem most calm.