#ETH走势分析 PCE data released, is there still suspense about a Fed rate cut?

On the evening of December 5, the US September core PCE data was released right on schedule. The key indicators held no surprises: annual rate steady at 2.9%, monthly rate at 0.2%, both exactly in line with expectations. For next week's Fed rate decision, this data is basically a passing grade.

Market reaction? Pretty much none. After all, this is a "lagging" data point, and everyone was mentally prepared. Now the market has priced in about an 87% probability of a December rate cut, and this lukewarm inflation data at least didn't drag things down—if PCE had surged above expectations, rate cut hopes could have been extinguished instantly.

Before and after the data release, the crypto market remained calm. $BTC price didn't see any sharp dives or spikes, continuing to consolidate at high levels. This is actually quite normal, since the real drama will unfold next week.

What should we focus on now? Three things:

First, the macro logic hasn't collapsed. Passing the PCE test means the fundamentals for a rate cut remain, which is still a positive environment for crypto assets.

Second, it's time to look ahead. The market is no longer fixated on historical data; all eyes are on next week's Fed meeting minutes and dot plot. How Powell explains next year's rate cut pace will be the key variable for subsequent market moves.

Third, trading advice: long-term holders can keep holding, as the big trend hasn't changed. But if you're trading derivatives, it's best to lower your leverage. Before the Fed meeting, the market tends to enter a narrow range, and if liquidity thins out, even small fluctuations could trigger major liquidations.

On the technical side, support and resistance levels remain valid, but if you're looking for a decisive breakout, you'll probably have to wait until the Fed gives a clear stance next week.