🔶 Majority of institutional consensus: The current #BTC market structure is increasingly resembling Q1 of 2022.

This is not a bearish call; the data is repeating history. ⚠️
Here’s a summary of key signals for you 👇
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🟡 1️⃣ BTC Unrealized Loss Scale = Early 2022 Levels
Currently:
👉 Over 25% of BTC is at an unrealized loss
👉 About 5–7 million BTC are in loss
👉 Peak of 7.1M BTC at an unrealized loss,
Almost exactly the same as Q1 2022.
Conclusion is straightforward:
This is the critical area of “whether we officially turn bearish.”
——
🟡 2️⃣ Capital Inflows Extremely Weak
Current BTC monthly inflow:
💰 $8.6 billion
July high this year:
💰 $64.3 billion
Good news:
✅ Hasn’t turned into “net outflow” yet
Bad news:
❌ Incremental capital can no longer support high valuations
——
🟡 3️⃣ Long-term Holders Are Still Selling, But Profits Are Almost Gone
Current situation:
👉 Long-term capital continues to sell
👉 But profit margins are rapidly shrinking
👉 No large-scale bag-holding yet, but already entering the “bearish digestion phase”
Highly similar rhythm to 2022.
——
🟡 4️⃣ Macro & Liquidity Shocks Start to Amplify
What does this resemble?
The rate hike shock of 2022.
The difference is:
👉 Back then, it hit OTC
👉 Now it’s hitting spot ETFs
——
🟡 5️⃣ Market Entering “Chronic Deleveraging”
✔ Long leverage is being cleared little by little
✔ No more extreme liquidation news
✔ Funding rates stay near 0 for extended periods
This is a signal:
The market is sliding from “excitement” to “deep cooling.”
——
🟡 6️⃣ Altcoins Complete “Structural Death” Ahead of BTC
In just November:
🔥 Memecoin sector retraced about 66% from its high
Current status:
✅ No capital inflow
✅ Projects start wash trading to survive
✅ Altcoins have entered the “early bear phase”
——
✅ But this time, there are also 3 key differences:
1️⃣ Spot ETFs as a new demand channel
2️⃣ No 3AC-level systemic credit bomb
3️⃣ Macro environment is in a rate-cutting cycle
So the conclusion is:
❌ Probability of a 2022-style crash is low
✅ More likely:
Low volatility + slow decline + prolonged bottoming
⏳ This phase may last until the end of 2026.
——
🔚 In a word:
Now it’s not a “crash that scares everyone,”
But a “slow bear that wears everyone out.”
The real test is patience. 🧠