The Reserve Bank of Australia is meeting next Tuesday, and this time it could be interesting.

The latest monthly inflation data isn't looking good—prices are still climbing. AMP's chief economist Shane Oliver bluntly said the central bank is probably frowning at these numbers. While it's unlikely they'll hike rates immediately, their language definitely won't be dovish.

What's the core issue? Inflation is more persistent than expected. Oliver mentioned the RBA will continue to emphasize capacity constraints—in plain English: the risk of an overheating economy hasn't gone away. If inflation keeps sticking around, monetary policy will need to be reconsidered.

The most critical signal is—the central bank is very likely to deliver a tough message: "We will do whatever it takes to bring inflation back to target." It sounds polite, but in reality, it leaves the door open for rate hikes next year.

Market sentiment is shifting too. Previously, people thought the rate hike cycle was almost over; now the question is "how much longer do we have to endure high rates?" The data is what really matters—employment, wages, CPI—if any of these don't cooperate, the central bank will have to maintain its hawkish stance.

Simply put, next week's meeting is likely to be a hold, but the statement will be carefully worded. The RBA needs to give the market a heads-up: don't be too quick to expect rate cuts; if inflation doesn't settle down, rate hikes are still on the table.

For traders, the focus needs to shift—it's not about "have rates peaked," but "how long will this tightening last." A data-driven policy path means every economic data release could trigger a market repricing.