Assuming this really is the start of a bear market, then this rebound could be the last escape window for the bulls. The question is—where will the ceiling of this rebound be?

Looking back at the early stage of the last bear market, remember when BTC dropped to around 33,000 for the second time? It managed to rebound all the way to 48,000, an increase of over 40%. Applying that percentage to the current situation: a 40% rebound from 80,000 would theoretically reach 110,000.

My trading strategy for December is clear—short on rallies. Considering the distribution of heavy resistance levels and the fact that the max pain point for the massive options expiration on the 26th is locked at 100,000, I personally think the probability of BTC holding above 100,000 this month is low.

Of course, the market doesn’t always follow the script. If the December trend proves me wrong, I’ll set my stop loss for shorts after BTC stabilizes above 100,000. Short-term traders are a different story—just capture moves of 1,000 to 2,000 points and get out quickly, with stop losses usually kept within 1,000 points.