#美联储重启降息步伐 There's a major data release to watch tonight at 23:00—the annual PCE Price Index is about to be announced.

This time it's a bit special. Since the CPI data hasn't been released yet, PCE becomes the only inflation indicator the Fed can reference before the December FOMC meeting. Even before the data release, the dollar has started to weaken—so what is the market betting on?

The core logic is straightforward: if core PCE exceeds expectations, the Fed will most likely hold steady and maintain current rates; but if the data meets or even falls below expectations, then the chances of a rate cut in December become very real.

Simply put, tonight's data directly determines the probability of the last policy shift before year-end. The dollar, gold, and crypto markets all have to watch this report card. We’ll know the results at 23:00.