#比特币对比代币化黄金 In the next three weeks, the crypto market will have to withstand three waves of impact. The timing is very tight, and each event could cause significant volatility.

First, let's look at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 11. The latest data shows that the probability of a rate cut has surged to 87%—just a month ago, most people still expected the Fed to hold steady. Once the Fed, the "main valve" of global liquidity, changes direction, the pricing logic for risk assets will have to be reshuffled. Whether $BTC can hold its current position, this meeting is the first hurdle.

Right after that, on December 19, the Bank of Japan will also announce its interest rate decision. Haruhiko Kuroda's recent statements have revealed a strong intention to raise rates, directly contradicting the previous market expectation of "continued easing in December." Given the sheer size of Japanese capital, if policy really shifts, global capital allocation will have to be recalculated, and volatility in the crypto market could be further amplified.

The most critical event is December 26—the last major options expiration date of the year. The notional value of contracts expiring this time is as high as $23 billion, which is quite substantial. Looking at the open interest distribution, Bitcoin's "maximum pain point" is at $100,000 (making a short-term breakout and hold extremely difficult), while a large number of put options have accumulated at $84,000. Why did the price quickly rebound after previously dipping below $84,000? The core logic is that institutions have set up a "protective cushion" with PUT options below this level, not allowing the price to stay there for long.

With two major central banks reversing policy expectations and a huge year-end options expiration, uncertainty in December will rise significantly. Funds will likely engage in repeated tug-of-war around these key price levels, so it's crucial to closely watch volatility changes and position adjustment signals before and after these events. $ETH $BNB will also be affected by these interlinked events, so extra caution is needed in operations.