#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 The crypto market in December? To put it simply, it’s three major events hitting one after another, and the trend for the next three weeks will basically revolve around these dates.

First up—December 11, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Previously, everyone thought they’d keep rates unchanged, but now the expectation for a rate cut has surged to 87%. That’s a pretty sharp shift. As the global benchmark for liquidity, the impact on risk asset pricing goes without saying.

Right after that, on December 19, the Bank of Japan is also meeting. Haruhiko Kuroda’s recent statements sound pretty unusual—he’s practically signaling a rate hike. The market was counting on them to keep the liquidity flowing, but this move could force a global reshuffling of capital allocation, and volatility in the crypto market is likely to spike.

The biggest event is December 26—the grand finale of Q4: the largest annual Bitcoin options expiration, with a notional value of $23 billion. Looking at the options open interest distribution, $BTC ’s biggest pain point is right at $100,000. Breaking through that level in the short term? That’s going to be extremely difficult. However, there are substantial put options defending the $84,000 level. Last time it dipped below there, it quickly bounced back, thanks to institutions laying down a strong cushion underneath.

With two major central banks’ policy expectations clashing and a massive options expiration, uncertainty this month is only going to increase. Capital is likely to seesaw around key levels—keep a close eye on volatility and position changes before and after these events. $ETH $BNB