Does anyone still remember the gold bull run in 2019? The current trend looks like a replay of that year’s footage.

Pull up the technical charts and compare them—the current market structure is eerily similar to the tail end of the Fed’s rate hikes in 2019. What’s even more astonishing is the unemployment rate indicator—data speaks for itself, and historical patterns show that every 0.5% rise in the unemployment rate results in an average $300/oz increase in gold prices. In September, the US unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, hitting a four-year high. This is almost identical to August 2019 when ( jumped from 3.6% to 3.8%). If safe-haven funds aren’t flowing into gold now, where else would they go?

Everyone is watching the $4,284 level. Many see it as resistance, but it might actually be the opposite—more like a launchpad for acceleration. This week, gold prices have consistently held above the $4,162 bull-bear dividing line, and MACD buying momentum is still building up. Once $4,284 is broken, the area around $4,348 should be a smooth ride upward.

What do the institutions think? Goldman Sachs has set its 2026 gold price target directly at $4,900, while Bank of America is even bolder, calling for $5,000. These numbers aren’t pulled out of thin air—they backtested the six months following the first rate cut in 2019, and gold rose an average of 22%.

The macro environment is also in sync. The market is now pricing in an 89% probability of a rate cut in December, and employment data continues to deteriorate—US small businesses have recorded job losses in three of the past four months. Citi has a model worth noting: after the unemployment rate breaks 4.2%, every additional 0.1% rise triggers a $500 million inflow into gold ETFs.

There’s another variable: the December 16 non-farm payroll data may be delayed due to the government shutdown, and historically, such data vacuums have tended to favor gold. Sometimes, uncertainty itself is the greatest certainty.