There’s a tough battle to fight tonight at 11:00 PM—the US Core PCE Price Index for November is about to be released, and once this data is out, the crypto market is likely to experience some intense volatility. Seasoned players know this indicator is the Fed’s Achilles’ heel when it comes to monetary policy—it directly affects capital flows in the market.

Here’s how the game is played: If the core PCE comes in higher than expected, inflationary pressure hasn’t eased, and the Fed will definitely keep tightening liquidity. When the dollar gains strength, funds flow back to traditional markets, leaving the crypto space to suffer, with bulls wiped out in an instant. But if the data is flat or even below expectations? That’s a whole different picture—market sentiment will breathe a sigh of relief, the probability of capital flowing back increases, and a short-term rebound window could open up.

How should you operate at such a critical moment? Here are a few principles you must remember:

In the hours leading up to the data release, keep your hands off your positions. Lighten up as much as you can, and don’t even think about touching leverage—a sudden move could liquidate you in a flash.

After the data drops, don’t rush to place bets. Watch the candlesticks for three minutes; if the data is bearish but the price shoots up, it’s probably just emotions at play—chasing this kind of fake rally is just giving away money. On the other hand, if the data is positive and accompanied by a volume-driven rise, you can follow with a small position, but remember to take profits quickly—don’t expect to ride the whole wave.

Looking at historical experience, this time the previous and forecast values are very close, so the market is already psychologically prepared and a one-sided move is unlikely. That said, the crypto world has seen all kinds of wild moves, so if a black swan event happens, those unprepared will just be left to cry.

In the long run, the fundamentals of the crypto market haven’t changed; short-term data is just a sideshow at best. Stay calm tonight, watch the action rationally, and don’t let your emotions lead you by the nose—surviving always beats running the fastest.