#加密市场观察 US/Japan Interest Rate Decisions Announced: Crypto Market May Usher in a New Uptrend!

For years, global investors borrowed yen at near-zero interest rates and used those funds to buy stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies.

This “yen carry trade” was one of the largest sources of extra global liquidity at the time.

But now, Japanese government bond yields have reached historic highs, and this source of cheap financing is disappearing.

The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise interest rates at its December meeting, which will further push yields higher and force more traders to unwind carry trades.

When this happens, investors sell off global assets to repay yen loans, and this sell-off first impacts risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.

We have seen this happen multiple times:

• In March 2024, the Bank of Japan’s rate hike coincided with a clear local top in Bitcoin.
• In July 2024, Bitcoin prices rose again, then dropped 20% within the next seven days.
• In January 2025, stock and crypto prices climbed further, then entered a months-long downward trend.

Japan’s policy decisions have always acted as a global liquidity switch.

No matter what policy the US adopts, when the Bank of Japan tightens monetary policy, liquidity quickly declines and the markets adjust accordingly.

However, the Federal Reserve is moving towards easing.

It has already cut rates twice; quantitative tightening has ended, and the probability of another rate cut in December is close to 90%.

But in the short term, this is not enough, because the Fed has not restarted quantitative easing or large-scale money printing yet.

Japan’s tightening still outweighs the Fed’s easing, so global liquidity remains under pressure for now.

Japan even announced a 150 billion yen stimulus plan, but rising yields indicate the market does not believe the stimulus can be sustained.

Yields continue to climb and the bond market is under pressure, confirming the view that Japan is exiting its old policy regime.

So, what does all this mean for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in the coming weeks and months?

In the short term, market volatility remains high. The Bank of Japan tightening monetary policy increases the possibility of market pullbacks, forced sell-offs, and sudden adjustments, just like the last three rate hikes.

But in the medium and long term, once the pressure passes, this situation will shift to a bullish pattern:

• The Fed will eventually need stronger easing policies.
• US liquidity will start to improve before Japan finishes tightening.
• Bitcoin prices typically bottom during periods of global liquidity stress, not after.
• Panic spreads, while long-term buyers begin to accumulate.
• Once the Bank of Japan stabilizes and the Fed fully pivots to supportive policies, Bitcoin often leads the next round of economic expansion.

Japan may cause short-term pressure, but the US is gradually moving toward a more liquidity-friendly environment.

This combination usually creates ideal conditions for Bitcoin to establish a stronger long-term foundation.
For investors, the Fed’s rate decision on December 10 and Japan’s decision on whether to raise rates on December 19 will directly impact crypto market liquidity and trends. So if good low points appear in the near term, it’s still wise to buy spot positions appropriately. Once risk-off sentiment and news factors settle, BTC is very likely to start a new uptrend. At present, we can see that BTC and ETH institutions are clearly front-running and increasing their holdings, and before the next major trend, truly valuable tokens have already undergone sufficient rotation and adjustment, making them likely to break out in the next Bitcoin rally. Among them, the most likely to break out are XRP, BNB, and ADA.