#美联储重启降息步伐 Three major events are coming in December—how far can this rebound go?

The market's been interesting lately—clearly, the trend is still down, but the rebounds are making people itch to jump in. To get straight to the point: this month is destined to be anything but calm, with three heavyweight events lined up—any one of them could be the trigger.

Let’s look at the recent macro environment; there are three big hurdles:

On the 11th, it’s the US Fed interest rate decision. Market sentiment is shifting fast—CME data shows the probability of a December rate cut has shot up to 87%. This kind of expectation reversal is tough to handle; whether the Fed actually cuts or just sounds dovish, the market is bound to shake in the short term.

On the 19th, it’s the Bank of Japan’s turn. The BOJ governor has made it pretty clear lately—rate hikes are almost certainly coming. Think about it: if Japan hikes, capital will flow back to Japan, risk assets will take a hit, and any move in the yen will shake global liquidity. That’s the second wave of impact.

On the 26th, it gets even bigger—BTC’s largest annual options expiry, with a notional value of $23 billion. The data is interesting: the max pain point is at $100,000, while the highest concentration of PUT positions is at $84,000. What does that mean? It means it won’t be easy to hold above $100k in December, and $84,000 has become the key tug-of-war line between bulls and bears—recent price action breaking below and snapping back is proof.

From a technical perspective, the structure is clear:

The weekly trend is confirmed down; honestly, this rebound is just a breather after being oversold. The monthly MACD is in a bearish crossover at the highs, and the daily is also under pressure—multiple timeframes are resonating to the downside. At times like this, the direction isn’t really in doubt—the rebound is just a rhythm adjustment.

I’m watching key resistance in the $97,000–$102,000 range. Until the trend reverses, this zone is a strong multi-layer barrier. The market won’t crash in a straight line, of course, but the overall direction will follow its own pace.

How to see this December?

Technically, the downward framework is clear, and on the macro side, three major events are coming one after another. Expect lots of back-and-forth this month, and volatility will definitely spike. The core of trading isn’t about guessing tops or bottoms, but about catching the rhythm of the swings.

Put simply, any strong rebound should be seen as a signal of risk being released—or as an opportunity to build short positions. A real trend move is more likely to start only after these three macro events settle and the market narrative gets sorted out again.

Be patient and wait for a clear entry window—don’t rush to catch the bottom. $BTC $ETH