#数字货币市场洞察 $BTC $ETH

Last night’s wick was pretty intense. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped sharply at first, then quickly bounced back, and now they’re stuck in a tug-of-war at a key level.

Let’s start with Bitcoin. Yesterday, it hovered in the 92,800-94,000 range all day. When the US initial jobless claims data came out in the evening, it immediately dropped to 90,842, but rebounded quickly and is now hovering around 92,000. Looking up, the 93,000-95,000 zone is a hurdle; if it breaks out with volume, $100,000 is not a dream. On the downside? 89,500-90,000 is the first line of defense; break that and watch 88,000-88,500. If that doesn’t hold, the pullback could be larger.

On the macro side, there’s some good news. Trump’s team said they want to nominate a crypto-friendly person as SEC chair, and with the Fed’s rate cut expectations still in place, these are all supporting factors.

Now let’s look at Ethereum, which is moving in tandem with Bitcoin but with even bigger swings. Yesterday it surged to 3,240 before consolidating. In the evening it dropped along with Bitcoin, hitting a low of 3,065, then rebounded to 3,190 but is looking a bit weak again. On the technical side, the hourly RSI has climbed from oversold to neutral, so the oversold condition has mostly been corrected. Key support is at yesterday’s low of 3,064 and the 3,100 round number, with resistance at 3,180-3,220, and strong resistance at yesterday’s high of 3,240.

The fundamentals are pretty solid. The Fusaka upgrade is progressing, and on December 1, ETH ETF saw a net inflow of $180 million in a single day. Institutional holdings are over $13 billion, clear signs of funds flowing back in, which is supportive for the price.

What’s the strategy? For Bitcoin, consider shorting around 92,100-92,500, targeting 90,500-89,500. For Ethereum, short around 3,170-3,190, targeting 3,100-3,050; if it breaks down, look for further downside. Of course, this is just for reference—markets move fast, so manage your risk.