Last night, when the stablecoin-to-RMB exchange rate broke 7, did your portfolio go up or down? Some people were anxiously watching the price of USDT, while ETH quietly surged 10%. This scenario is just like those surreal moments before every major market turning point.

On the surface, it’s just exchange rate numbers fluctuating, but underneath, two battles are quietly unfolding.

Let’s start with the Fed. The policy signals are already clear—the market is pricing in nearly a 90% chance of a rate cut in December. Once USD liquidity loosens, that capital needs somewhere to go. As the RMB strengthens, stablecoins come under pressure; this logic isn’t complicated. More importantly, if monetary policy really does shift, the global logic for allocating to safe-haven assets will have to be rewritten.

Now, let’s look at the domestic front. The gray-market cross-border channels are undergoing their strictest crackdown ever, and forced selling is flooding the market, putting huge pressure on the supply side. In the short term, it looks like panic selling, but in the long term, it could mean the market structure is being reshaped—those relying on information asymmetry and regulatory loopholes are being forced out.

But why are crypto assets still rising? That’s the real question worth pondering. When traditional liquidity pools start to loosen, emerging asset classes are often the first to sense opportunity. Tighter regulation may actually filter out speculative bubbles, allowing real value consensus to surface. Looking back, it’s not uncommon for stablecoins to come under pressure before a bull run—in 2019, that rally started from a similarly divergent setup.

There are always two types of people in the market. Newcomers are asking “Is this the crash?” while veterans are already calculating arbitrage opportunities from exchange rate differences. Some panic at the numbers, others get excited by the volatility.

A simple question: When everyone’s staring at the exchange rate, what are you watching?