Stared at ETH’s 4-hour candlestick for half an hour, and the more I look, the more something feels off. This movement doesn’t seem natural—it looks more like a carefully crafted bull trap, waiting for emotionally driven traders to rush in.

Are you also struggling right now: Should you cut your losses and exit? Or try to catch the bottom for a rebound? Or just close your eyes and ride it out? Don’t rush to a decision—let’s break down the current situation first.

**Undercurrents at the Macro Level**
US national debt has swelled to $30 trillion, with annual interest payments alone swallowing $1.2 trillion. Citigroup analysts describe this as “sinking into quicksand.” News like this seems distant, but it quietly influences market expectations—when the dollar’s credibility is shaken, money theoretically flows into alternative assets like Bitcoin and ETH. Strangely, though, ETH is dropping today.

Here’s the question: Will the debt crisis act as a catalyst for a rebound, or be the fatal blow that crushes the market?

**Contradictory Signals in Technical Charts**
The 4-hour chart is showing a clear downtrend, but the MACD lines have crossed above the zero axis, forming a golden cross. Normally, that’s a bullish signal—but trading volume is shrinking. It’s like trying to speed up a car that’s out of gas—how far can it really go?

Key levels are marked clearly: resistance above at 3500 and in the 3270-3400 range, while support below sits at 3170, 2945, and 2760. The current price is stuck in the middle. Either it breaks above 3065 to challenge the 3270 resistance, or it falls back to test the 2945 support.

Personally, I lean bullish, but this rebound is unlikely to happen in one go. If it can’t break through resistance effectively, a pullback is almost inevitable. Retail traders should be ready with two sets of strategies—don’t bet everything on a one-sided move.