Warning: Why Bitcoin's Next Major Growth Phase May Not Occur Before 2026

Will Bitcoin Repeat Its Strong Breakout Like in Early 2024? According to a new analysis from 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder, investors should lower their expectations for the possibility of another major rally at the beginning of 2026. This assessment is drawing attention because it focuses on the core factors driving the market and explains why current conditions are not sufficient to trigger the next boom.

Factors That Could Hold Back the Next Major Rally Snyder points out several reasons why Bitcoin is unlikely to repeat its strong growth pattern in the short term. Although January is often a time when portfolio rebalancing brings capital back into the market, investor sentiment is the decisive factor.

Currently, investor excitement and risk appetite are significantly lower compared to periods that previously fueled strong bull runs.

According to Snyder, the factors currently causing major market volatility are unlikely to be resolved in the short term. This means that investors need to prepare for a prolonged period of instability rather than expecting a quick reversal.

The early 2024 rally benefited from special conditions—and those conditions are no longer present in today’s environment.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Why Isn’t Inflow Enough to Spark a Rally? Capital inflow into Bitcoin ETFs is seen by many investors as a leading market indicator. However, Snyder warns:

ETFs provide liquidity, but do not guarantee price increases, and cannot replace an improvement in market sentiment.

Currently, a “risk-off” environment (risk aversion) is prevailing across all asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. Therefore, even if ETFs record positive inflows, it is still not enough to trigger a strong bull cycle.

Snyder emphasizes: A rally similar to 2024 would require a significant shift in overall investor sentiment—something that cannot happen overnight.

Could the Current Correction Be a Positive Signal? Although the short-term outlook remains challenging, Snyder believes the current correction does not stem from internal issues within the crypto market. Instead, it reflects a global trend of risk aversion.

Some positive signals highlighted include:

• The price decline is due to macro factors, not a systemic failure of Bitcoin
• Bitcoin’s technology base and adoption rate continue to grow
• Institutional capital, while cautious, has not disappeared

According to Snyder, falling prices but solid fundamentals are a “good sign for the long term.” When macro conditions become more favorable, the crypto market’s potential for a strong recovery will be high.

What Should Investors Do During This Period? Snyder does not predict the market will stagnate over the long term; she only emphasizes that expecting a major rally at the start of 2026 is unrealistic. This does not rule out the possibility of Bitcoin growing at other times of the year.

Some suitable strategies for the current context:

• Diversify portfolios over time and across asset classes
• Apply a DCA strategy (dollar-cost averaging) instead of trying to time the top and bottom
• Monitor fundamental indicators such as adoption, hashrate, and institutional flows
• Prepare a buying plan for when the market turns pessimistic

Snyder also notes that making an accurate prediction for January 2026 is extremely difficult; recognizing uncertainty often yields better results than rigid forecasts.

Long-Term Perspective – What Many Analysts Overlook Most attention now is on Bitcoin’s short-term price volatility. However, Snyder believes that the same factors holding the market back in the short term—like risk aversion and economic uncertainty—are actually laying the groundwork for a strong recovery phase in the future.

History shows that the crypto market often accumulates before major bull cycles. The current stage could be such an accumulation phase.

The important thing is that Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from the general volatility of traditional financial markets. Prices may fluctuate with macro contexts, but Bitcoin’s core value and technological development continue to progress.

Conclusion Ophelia Snyder’s analysis shows:

• Early 2026 may not be the time for a Bitcoin explosion
• ETF inflows, while important, are not the decisive factor
• The market is being affected by macro factors, not crypto weakness
• Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain stable and continue to develop

Instead of focusing on short-term predictions, investors should prioritize long-term strategies and prepare for opportunities when global market sentiment improves.