Low-volume doji star, time to pick a direction?

The market continues to grind sideways, fluctuating only 20 points all day, and trading volume is extremely sluggish. This stalemate can't last much longer; it's highly likely we'll see a decisive move soon.

Technically, there are a few key points to watch:

First, the 10-day moving average. Today's candle shows signs of turning upward, which is a positive for the bulls. But here's the problem—if volume doesn't pick up and break through, the 10-day moving average will become increasingly weak as support, and a breakdown wouldn't be surprising.

Next, look at the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index—they're even more straightforward. The 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages are all converging. This kind of compression usually doesn't last long; next, it's all about which line can hold and which line will be lost.

Currently, the chips are a little more favorable for the bulls, but whether the market can really move up depends on two things: first, whether the brokerage sector can step up—it already shows a bullish divergence, so there's potential for a surge; second, whether the index can stabilize above the 5-day moving average. If it keeps hovering below, be wary that the 10-day moving average may not hold either, and we might see a retest of the 3816 low.

Right now, it's all about choosing a direction. Don't rush to make a move—wait until the signal is clear.