#数字货币市场洞察 Bank of America economist Takayasu Kudo just released a report, directly naming the Bank of Japan as likely to make a major move at its December 18-19 policy meeting—raising the policy rate from the current 0.5% straight to 0.75%.

The bigger news is yet to come: this rate hike is just the appetizer. According to BofA’s forecast, there will be another hike every six months, with rate increases already locked in for June 2026, January 2027, and July 2027.

Why does the BOJ dare to do this now? Several signals are coming together:
- Corporate profit data has been trending upward recently
- There has been substantial progress in the spring wage negotiations
- The yen has depreciated sharply, putting considerable pressure on the FX market
- The central bank and the government have already made their positions clear to each other

With this combination of factors, the probability of a December rate hike is indeed not low. The question is, what chain reactions will this move trigger? Will global capital flows adjust as a result? Will the digital asset market be affected?

Japan has long had a traditionally low interest rate environment, so once it starts a cycle of continuous rate hikes, the impact on arbitrage trading and cross-border capital flows will be significant. It’s worth keeping a close eye on statements from central bank officials and market reactions going forward.