#美联储重启降息步伐 【$BTC Trend Observation】December 5 Update

First, let’s talk about yesterday’s situation—

My previous assessment was: if the price keeps hovering below 93000, then we need to be cautious about adjustment risks. The key support zone I gave was the 91500 to 92000 region. Can you try to bottom fish at this level? My view is that you can try a small position, but it’s most likely just a rebound. Because once it drops here, the probability of further downside increases. But I estimate the extreme level would be between 90000-90500.

What actually happened? Yesterday, the price did stay below 93000 most of the time, dropped to around 91800 at about 10:30 pm, then quickly bounced back to 93250, and then turned downward again. In the early morning, it hit a low of around 90900, then rebounded to a high of 92700. This basically matched my expectations.

The key question now is: Is the correction over?

To be honest, I don’t think the correction is done yet. There are two reasons:

First, the price still hasn’t properly tested the 90000-90500 range I mentioned. Second, today’s rebound... how to put it, it’s pretty lackluster. While it’s possible there could be a sudden surge later, based on current performance, further downside seems more likely.

My long order? It’s been set in the 90000-90500 range for a while, and I’m actually being pretty aggressive—I didn’t set a stop loss. My thinking is, at worst, I’ll just add to the position to average down the cost.

Of course, what if the market really can’t drop any further? Then I’ll be watching for one signal: whether the price can effectively stand back above 93000. If it can break above this level again, then I may have to change my view—those lower levels probably won’t be reached, and it’s likely stabilizing and getting ready for another rally. I’ll adjust my strategy then.

The market changes rapidly, so we’ll just take it step by step.