#ETH走势分析 The market on Friday is really not suitable for chasing longs.

$ETH After rebounding to the 3172 level in the morning session, the market started to struggle—unable to break up or drop down. This kind of stalemate is the most frustrating. If you look closely at the price action, you’ll see how strong the resistance above is—a tentative push towards the middle band was immediately pushed back, indicating that the selling pressure is unusually fierce.

The Bollinger Bands are also sending signals: the channel is narrowing, and both the middle and upper bands continue to press downward. Although there’s a slight upward hook on the lower band, the overall structure is still weak. Combined with a weakening MACD and continued sell-off on increasing volume, bears clearly have the upper hand in the short term.

What’s the key to watch? See if the rebound high can break above the previous high. If it can’t, this round of consolidation is still playing out to the bears’ rhythm. With the current weak rebound and obvious resistance levels, it’s rational to remain cautiously bearish until we see a breakout above key resistance on strong volume.

Here’s an operational reference: consider short setups above 3190, and look to 3095 as the first support below. Don’t rush in to catch falling knives—the market won’t give you an opportunity to bottom fish just because you want it.