There is a data release at 11 PM tonight that could directly ignite the market.

The US September Core PCE data is about to be released, with market expectations at 2.9%, the same as last month. But you need to know that Core PCE is not an ordinary inflation indicator—it excludes the volatility of food and energy, directly reflecting the real cost of consumption, and is the core reference for the Federal Reserve when setting interest rate policy.

Simply put, this number determines whether the Fed dares to cut rates, when it will do so, and by how much. The Fed’s stance, in turn, directly affects global risk assets.

The market’s situation is currently very delicate: BTC is stuck between 91,000 and 94,000, and this range is packed with massive long and short positions. Above 94k, there are liquidation lines for over $1 billion in short orders; below 91k, there are dense liquidation points for long positions.

A deviation of just 0.1% in tonight’s data could instantly tip the entire market out of balance.

Two possible scenarios:

**Scenario 1: Data below 2.9%**
Rate cut expectations will heat up immediately, and risk assets will see a collective surge. If BTC breaks through 94k, shorts will be forced to cover, creating a chain reaction, and ETH and SOL will also take off. This kind of stampede often comes quickly and fiercely.

**Scenario 2: Data above 2.9%**
Rate cut expectations will be postponed, and the market will immediately shift to a risk-off mode. Safe-haven sentiment will rise, and crypto assets may face downward pressure, with the 91k support level being repeatedly tested.

The key point is that the market is highly sensitive right now—any data that exceeds expectations will be magnified and over-interpreted. It’s recommended that everyone prepare risk management plans in advance so a single data point doesn't wipe out your positions.