The scale of U.S. Treasury debt has unprecedentedly surged past the $30 trillion mark—what does this number mean? Back in 2018, it was less than half of that; in just seven years, it’s more than doubled. The aftereffects of the reckless money printing and borrowing during the pandemic are now gradually emerging.

The latest data for November shows that the total of U.S. Treasury bills, notes, and bonds has reached $30.2 trillion, a 0.7% increase in a single month. Behind this number lie two critical issues: first, the astronomical amount borrowed in 2020 to deal with the pandemic, and second, the soaring interest rates in recent years, which have pushed interest payments to the brink of overwhelming the federal budget.

The head of U.S. rate strategy at a major European bank put it bluntly: "The fiscal gap has always existed, and over the past twenty years, debt has snowballed. Things got worse after the pandemic, because that batch of debt was issued at high interest rates. Now, the cost of interest alone has become a massive hole in the budget."

A look at the books shows just how staggering this is—in 2020, $4.3 trillion was borrowed through debt issuance, with the deficit surpassing $3 trillion. Although the deficit has narrowed somewhat in the past two years (partially due to increased tariff revenue), and is projected to drop to $1.78 trillion in fiscal year 2025, guess how much is spent just on interest payments? $1.2 trillion!

A rates strategist at an investment bank made things even clearer: "The real trouble is interest payments. Even if tariffs can bring in three or four hundred billion dollars, it’s still not enough to cover the interest on existing debt. It’s like sinking into quicksand; tariffs might slow us down a bit, but we’re still sinking."

Over the past two years, the size of Treasury auctions has stabilized, and it’s expected to remain unchanged for the next few quarters. However, a Treasury official hinted last month—they are "starting to consider" whether to expand debt issuance in the future. The statement was subtle, but you get the idea.

Here’s another set of numbers for context: Treasury debt is just part of the nation’s total debt. In November, total national debt reached $38.4 trillion (including money owed to Social Security funds and savings bond holders), with a statutory debt ceiling of $41.1 trillion. There’s still some room before hitting the ceiling, but at this pace... just think about it.