#数字货币市场洞察 Is the Bank of Japan likely to raise rates in December? Honestly, this move has long been expected.

When liquidity tightens at the macro level, the crypto space is always the first to take a hit. What does accelerated yen repatriation mean? Short-term liquidity gets drained instantly, and any volatility in the USD/JPY rate will spook those high-leverage players.

But after digging into on-chain activity overnight, I found a few interesting details:
- Large stablecoin transfers on-chain haven’t shrunk—in fact, a few whale addresses are quietly placing buy orders at lower levels;
- The trend of BTC and ETH flowing out of exchanges continues, with tokens quietly accumulating in strong hands;
- The fear sentiment index has ticked up slightly, which is often when seasoned players are waiting for a pullback to enter.

My personal view is pretty straightforward:
Within the next month: If a yen rate hike really happens and US Treasury market volatility continues, the market will likely use this as an excuse for a shakeout, and BTC will probably retest lower support levels.

Looking three months out: On-chain metrics like active address count and stablecoin issuance haven’t deteriorated, so the fundamentals are actually improving. If prices drop, it’s actually an entry window.

Those who truly understand trading respect macro shocks but also trust that on-chain data doesn’t lie. What the market lacks isn’t so-called “good news”—it’s the patience to endure.

Bull markets always sprout amid doubt and climb amid debate. If you believe in the cyclical nature of markets, hold onto your tokens and don’t let short-term noise shake you out. My strategy remains clear: buy more on dips, hold on rallies. Time will tell who’s swimming naked and who’s raising big fish in deep waters. $ETH