2025-12-05 05:20:36

#ETH走势分析 I just saw that SBF news, and looking at the market these past few days—honestly, the market isn’t buying it at all.

SBF has been making frequent statements, riding the wave of his cellmate’s pardon, and the intention is obvious, but the data doesn’t lie: Polymarket’s odds are stuck at 2% and haven’t moved. There’s an $8 billion hole sitting there, and the damage to this industry is too deep. No amount of PR can wash away what’s recorded in real money and ledgers.

The ongoing spread of this negative news will only make big money continue to wait on the sidelines. The on-chain activity I’m watching confirms this—smart money is still watching from the sidelines, and there’s no sign of bottom-fishing or volume picking up. Most likely, this grind will continue for a while.

As always: don’t chase the hype, don’t gamble on news. The real opportunities are only there after the market has fully digested this kind of negative news, and when there are signals of major players quietly entering on-chain. What’s needed now is patience and restraint—not wishful thinking.

Keep an eye on the data and stay clear-headed. The market only rewards those who aren’t impulsive. $ETH

ETH-3.8%

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BridgeNomad

· 18h ago

nah, that 2% probability floor is basically the market's way of saying "we're not forgetting 8 billion anytime soon"—pure counter-party risk nobody wants to touch rn. watching tvl migration patterns and liquidity fragmentation tells the same story: smart money's nowhere near the bottom yet.

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GasGuru

· 18h ago

This whole SBF drama is really enough, there's an $8 billion hole right there—who believes his story? On-chain data is what really matters, stop overthinking it and wait for a main player signal. The market has already given the answer, a 2% probability says it all. Let it drag on, I’m not in a hurry anyway, just waiting for that moment. This time, we really have to listen to the market, not stories.

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PuzzledScholar

· 18h ago

Wait, is SBF hyping things up again? Does he really think the market is his cash machine? No one is taking even a 2% chance—doesn't that say it all?

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CryptoComedian