I’ve seen quite a few friends panicking in the group—why has the stablecoin exchange rate softened again these past couple of days?

Don’t rush to worry. When this thing drops, it actually lights up a signal.

There’s an unwritten rule in the market: when USDT is weak, coins are strong. Just look at past K-lines—back in 2017, in 2021, every time a major bull run started, the price of USDT would dip first. It’s not some de-pegging crisis, it’s simply because capital inside the market is scrambling to buy in—everyone’s swapping their USDT for spot, so who cares about a bit of exchange rate slippage?

To put it simply, USDT is the “price tag” for chips in the trading pool. When it weakens, it’s a sign that hot money isn’t sitting on the sidelines—it’s rushing in to buy.

Digging deeper, when the Fed cuts rates or stops balance sheet reduction, USDT’s circulation shoots up. More circulation means the unit price gets diluted; but once liquidity picks up, the market becomes more flexible—that’s when coin prices have room to surge.

So don’t just focus on those little exchange rate fluctuations—the real thing to watch is where the money is flowing.