A senior White House economic advisor recently made a statement in a TV interview—next week’s FOMC meeting should move to cut rates by 25 basis points! This isn’t just idle talk; the current president is backing him.

To be honest, although this advisor has always leaned dovish, this time he’s pretty down-to-earth. He didn’t call for an aggressive 100-point rate cut, but said that if the market generally agrees on a 25-point move, then that’s the step to take first. He also specifically mentioned that policymakers need to closely monitor changes in the data, clearly trying to strike a balance between policy preferences and central bank independence.

But over at Deutsche Bank, they poured cold water on the market. Their research team believes the market is too optimistic about a policy pivot. Even if a new leader does want to push for rate cuts, it won’t be that easy to implement—there’s resistance from hawkish members internally, and more importantly, by mid-2026, the fundamentals of the US economy may not support the logic of aggressive easing at all. The market tug-of-war is far from over.