Today's Market Analysis

Given the current market trend, I still see this as a rebound rather than a reversal. The rebound structure is clear: we're already in the third phase. The first phase was a direct pull from 116400 down to 93000, followed by a retest to build momentum; now, this is a larger-scale rebound after the drop from 126200.

The most crucial point for $BTC next is 98000.
This level happens to overlap with the 0.382 retracement of the 4-hour downtrend. Whether the rebound can continue to escalate, or even turn into a reversal, basically depends on whether this level can be broken through.

As for $ETH , I mentioned yesterday that once 3060 is reclaimed, it would head straight for 3230. And it didn’t disappoint—ETH has this personality: stronger and more resilient than BTC. The first target has been reached, and the next resistance is at 3660.

For my trades, I closed half of my ETH long position around 3200, and I'm holding the rest. Next, if BTC rebounds to 98000 and ETH rebounds to 3600, I’ll consider gradually shorting.

My approach to trading contracts is more suited to medium-term positions, not the style of making several trades a day. Many people trade BTC by watching the 15-minute chart and betting on a few hundred dollar swings. These types of traders are basically just here to give money to the market.