#美联储重启降息步伐 $ETH Recently, there’s been a rare situation in the market—USDT to RMB exchange rate has dropped below 7, and a lot of people in the crypto circle are talking about it. You know, this rate usually fluctuates around 7.2, so this sudden drop to around 6.95 really caught people by surprise.

There are mainly two factors behind this. On one hand, there are signals from the market that the Fed might adjust its monetary policy, and the probability of a rate cut in December has been hyped up to nearly 90%, putting pressure on the dollar. On the other hand, there’s been a noticeable increase in regulatory crackdowns on illicit cross-border capital flows using stablecoins, causing some holders to sell off for risk aversion, leading to a short-term supply-demand imbalance.

Interestingly, even though the price of USDT is dropping, major coins like $ETH are surging, with daily gains reaching 10%. This isn’t hard to understand—when there’s a stronger expectation of dollar depreciation, capital tends to look for alternative assets. The crypto market often absorbs some of this risk-averse or speculative capital in these situations. Historically, before every bull run, stablecoin prices go through a period of adjustment. Whether this time is the same still depends on how things play out.

Right now, you really need to be careful when cashing out. I’ve heard some users got their receiving accounts flagged by risk control systems due to frequent transactions or unclear counterparty sources. If you want to exchange, it’s better to do it in small, split batches and try to work with reliable, long-term partners—don’t just chase the highest rates, account security is more important. High-frequency and large transfers are especially likely to trigger bank risk controls, so pay attention to that.

In theory, there is an arbitrage opportunity—USDT is at 6.95 and USD exchange rate is 7.05, so there’s a spread to be made. But in practice, the risk is high—if your account gets frozen, it’s not worth it. The market is pretty divided right now: newcomers are worried about potential problems with stablecoins, while some veterans see this as a good time to position themselves. What do you think about USDT breaking below 7? Is it just a short-term fluctuation or a signal of a new trend?