I’m not sending out subscription content anymore. The recent moves have me a bit confused—I can’t understand why the exchange rate is holding so firm. It’s giving me a headache. First, about my own positions: my short at 2885 hasn’t been stopped out, I’m still holding it, and I don’t have any longs left. In the past, the trades I shared with you were basically based on the details of my own operations, but that won’t work this time. On one hand, your capital and mine are on different levels, and you wouldn’t be able to handle the kind of drawdown I’m dealing with. On the other hand, the four-hour chart breaking through 3150 is already beyond my expected range, so the overall structure here is a failure. So take today’s analysis as reference only.

Let me get a sense of your situation first: 3050 wasn’t reached last night. I’m not sure if you stopped out your positions at 3160, or if you manually closed part of them around 3055, planning to stop the rest at 3260 and watching the 3105 level.

Here’s a general overview: once 3150 broke, 3245 was bound to be reached. If 3245 breaks, 3445 will pretty much follow. If you’re still holding at 3260, you’ll need to stop out—otherwise, you’re looking at holding all the way to 2445. The daily chart’s biggest support/resistance flip is at 3650; whether the market can reverse depends on what happens at 3650.

At this point, I don’t even dare to expect a four-hour pullback. After the US stock market opens, if we reach 3105 on the 30-minute chart, whether you have no position and want to go long, or you’re planning to stop out at 3260, this is the level to watch.