#币圈新视界

Currently, the crypto market is attracting widespread attention, and a highly debated viewpoint is: "The major correction may have just begun." Observing from the unique cyclical patterns and complex structural characteristics of the crypto market, Bitcoin's current price pullback is by no means an isolated accident, but rather the inevitable result of multiple intertwined and interacting factors.

In market operations, short-term and long-term logic often show completely different trends. In the short term, market participants tend to overemphasize the immediate impact of information, overreacting to every minor event; however, the forces driving long-term trends are often underestimated and insufficiently recognized. This imbalance between short-sightedness and foresight to some extent lays the groundwork for market volatility.

The spot ETF, through this event, is like a large stone thrown into the calm lake of the crypto market, causing ripples. The initial influx of large-scale capital after its approval acted as a powerful booster, driving Bitcoin's price up rapidly. However, at its core, this rise was not based on a significant increase in current liquidity, but rather a pre-pricing of future liquidity. Market participants, optimistic about a continued influx of capital, rushed into the market, driving up prices.

However, when the macro environment fails to deliver rate cuts as smoothly as the market expects, or when the actual easing is far less than anticipated, this expectation-based rally loses its support, making a price correction inevitable.

ETF net outflows, declining market depth, and the accumulation of derivatives leverage all reflect this correction process in the market. They serve as warning signals, clearly indicating that the market is adjusting its previous excessive optimism. From a macro perspective, expectations for Fed rate cuts have long been widely circulated and fully digested by market participants. But rate cuts as a policy measure do not equate to immediate and ample liquidity injection. Especially with inflationary pressures still lingering, central banks’ policy space is greatly limited. On the one hand, central banks must strike a difficult balance between stimulating economic growth and controlling inflation;
on the other hand, there is a clear gap between the market's expectations for rate cuts and the actual policy strength central banks can implement. This contradiction makes risk asset markets extremely sensitive and more susceptible to shifts in market sentiment.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's potential rate hike is like a bombshell thrown onto the global carry trade chessboard, introducing significant uncertainty to global carry trades. The logic of carry trades is based on interest rate differentials between countries, and a rate hike by Japan could alter the direction and cost structure of global capital flows, further intensifying concerns over liquidity tightening and increasing downward pressure on risk assets such as the crypto market.

On the technical side, a series of key indicators are sending strong adjustment signals. The 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average, forming a “death cross,” is viewed as an important sign of a weakening mid-term trend in crypto market analysis. It indicates that, in the short term, the market’s average cost has fallen below the long-term average, upward momentum is insufficient, and adjustment pressure is increasing.

The ADX indicator rising to 40 further confirms that the trend’s strength is increasing, and this trend is downward.

Additionally, the loss of key support levels is like the first domino, potentially triggering a chain reaction and larger-scale liquidations. Especially in the current environment of high market leverage, once prices break below key support, many highly leveraged positions will face forced liquidation, which will further intensify selling pressure and accelerate price declines.

It is worth noting that the moves of traditional financial institutions often carry profound strategic intentions. Vanguard’s decision to open crypto ETF trading during a market correction phase may seem simple, but there are complex considerations behind it. This is more like a carefully planned strategic layout rather than a simple short-term bullish signal. Large financial institutions, with their massive capital, professional research teams, and rich market experience, often enter the market against the tide when panic prevails and prices plummet. What they value is the long-term development potential of the crypto market and the currently undervalued asset prices. By positioning at the bottom, they lay the groundwork for future market rebounds and long-term returns. However, this does not mean that a short-term bottom has already formed; the market may continue searching for real bottom support during this adjustment phase.

For the vast majority of investors, in this uncertain and volatile crypto market, accurately understanding market structure is far more important than blindly predicting price points. At this stage, the core logic of the market is shifting, entering a critical process of repricing risk. This is not simply a technical correction, but an inevitable stage of re-evaluating and repricing various risk factors after a rapid market rally. Historical data clearly show that corrections in the crypto market are often sharp and swift, with prices experiencing significant volatility in a short period. However, true value support does not come from short-term speculation and sentiment-driven rallies, but from the fundamental factors of the crypto network—such as innovation in blockchain technology, steady user growth, continuous expansion of application scenarios, and long-term capital allocation driven by recognition of these fundamentals.

In this market stage full of both challenges and opportunities, the market acts as a ruthless filter, eliminating positions built on overly optimistic expectations. These positions often lack adequate risk awareness and response measures, making them prone to significant losses during corrections. At the same time, the market is quietly accumulating energy for the next cycle. The interplay between liquidity, leverage, and macro policy will continue to play a decisive role in market trends. Investors need to maintain clear-headedness, pay closer attention to the real changes in capital flows, and deeply analyze the drivers and intentions behind these flows, rather than being misled by surface-level market narratives. Only in this way can one seize true investment opportunities and achieve steady asset growth in this turbulent crypto market.