Why Your Mortgage Rate Just Got More Expensive (And Why the Fed's Rate Cut Didn't Help)

Here’s the weird part: the Federal Reserve cut rates, but your mortgage got more expensive anyway. Why? Three culprits.

The 10-Year Treasury is the real boss. Mortgage rates don’t actually follow the Fed’s benchmark rate—they track the 10-year Treasury yield. Recent jobs data came in hotter than expected, which spooked bond markets and sent Treasury yields spiking. Your mortgage rate tagged along for the ride.

The MOVE Index just jumped 30%. This measures interest rate volatility. When it spikes, banks get nervous. They widen their profit margin (called “the spread”) to cushion against uncertainty. Think of it as a risk tax—the more chaotic things look, the higher you pay.

Your credit score still matters. Higher credit = lower rate. But even borrowers with pristine credit are seeing offers go up because of those volatility concerns above.

The formula is simple: lower Treasury yields + calmer bond markets = cheaper mortgages. Until inflation data cools down and the market stops freaking out, rates probably stay elevated.