Candlestick pattern: daily chart fluctuates and falls, price drops by 1.71% to 3192.41, operating within a wide range of 3001.01-3248.50, with the daily chart showing a fluctuation pattern with pressure above and support below.

· Bollinger Bands: Prices are oscillating around the middle band (3168.06), the Bollinger Bands are continuously narrowing, with the upper band (3246.22) and lower band (3089.91) forming the recent oscillation range.
· MACD: DIF (-49.30) and DEA (-62.23) have formed a golden cross below the zero line, and the MACD histogram (25.86) continues to expand, indicating that the rebound momentum is still ongoing.
· KDJ: The K value (64.89) and D value (54.88) have a golden cross upwards, the J value (84.91) has entered the overbought area, indicating a short-term pullback pressure.
· Key Levels: 3001.01 has become an important support, while 3248.50 is the recent pressure.

4-hour level analysis

· Trend structure: The price is fluctuating widely within the range of 3001-3248, rebounding from the low point of 3001 to 3248 before retreating, currently seeking support near the middle track.
· Moving Average System: The short-term moving averages are flat, and the price is oscillating between MA7 and MA30, indicating a consolidation pattern in the moving average system.
· MACD: DIF and DEA have formed a death cross above the zero line, and the MACD histogram has turned negative, increasing short-term adjustment pressure.
· Price-volume relationship: Net outflow of $-559 million, significant capital outflow indicates cautious market sentiment, limiting rebound potential.

Comprehensive judgment

ETH is in a critical consolidation phase, with technical indicators showing a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces. The price is operating within a large range of 3001-3248, and the narrowing Bollinger Bands suggest an upcoming directional breakout. Although the MACD golden cross supports a rebound, significant capital outflow and KDJ overbought conditions constrain the upward space.

Operational suggestions

· Long Position Strategy:
· After a pullback, stabilize in the 3150-3130 range to go long, target 3220-3250
· After breaking 3250, pull back to go long, target 3400-3350
· Short Position Strategy:
· Short at the resistance level between 3230-3250, target 3180-3150
· After falling below 3130, rebound to short, target 3020-3000

Risk Warning: ETH is at a critical turning point, with significant capital outflows increasing downside risk. It is recommended to operate with a light position and to set strict stop-losses, focusing on the breakout situation at the 3150 support and 3250 resistance levels. A valid breakout will initiate a new trend.

Overall, ETH is in a short-term bearish consolidation, but the downside potential is limited. It is recommended to sell high and buy low at key positions, follow the trend after a breakout, and avoid over-trading in the middle of the range. There is significant pressure on the capital side, so position sizing must be strictly controlled.