November 4th Friday evening trading strategy

The crypto market has plummeted again! Bitcoin has dropped nearly 6% in 24 hours, now reported at 97107. Bottom feeders are eager to jump in, while bears are looking to capitalize on the momentum—should we get in or wait and see? Key points: the overall trend is still bearish, but short-term oversold signals are piling up, so a small position could be taken to bet on a rebound, just don't be a "bag holder"!

First, let's talk about why there is a short-term rebound opportunity. The technical indicators are almost "crying for help": on the 4-hour level, the RSI6 has dropped to 23, and the KDJ three lines are all lying flat below 20. When these two indicators are simultaneously oversold, it's like a spring being compressed to the limit, and the probability of a rebound rises sharply. Moreover, the price has already touched the lower Bollinger Band, and the latest K-line trading volume has plummeted to 13.79. The volume was quite strong during the previous decline, but now the selling pressure is clearly weakening, and funds are quietly "bottom-fishing" — there is a net inflow of 95.51 million USDT on the 30-minute level, diverging from the outflow of funds on the 4-hour level, indicating that short-term funds are starting to come in to pick up bargains.

But don't let the rebound signals cloud your judgment! The moving averages are still in a standard "bearish arrangement," with the MA5 directly pressing down at 98319, and the price hasn't even stood above all the moving averages. The MACD is still below the zero line with a death cross; the bearish trend has not changed at all. This operation can only be seen as a "super dip rebound," so be careful not to treat it as a reversal market, or you might end up buying the dip like the "Calabash Brothers saving Grandpa."

Long opportunity (caution! Position should not exceed 10%)

Conservative approach: Wait for the price to stabilize at the support range of 95840-96500, and ensure that the 30-minute MACD shows a golden cross before entering in batches. Set the stop loss below 94800 to avoid being liquidated by a spike.
Radicals: If it can break through MA5 (98319) with increased volume and stabilize, you can try a small long position, but definitely don't chase the high!
Target: The first target is 101960 (double resistance of MA20+R1), the second target is 103456, which has approximately 5%-6.5% room, and the risk-reward ratio is about 1:2.

Shorting opportunity (follow the trend, more secure)

If it rebounds near 101960 and cannot break through, and a bearish engulfing pattern appears, short with a light position and set the stop loss above 103456.
If it directly breaks below the key support of 95840 and declines with volume, it indicates that the oversold rebound is completely over, and the trend continues downward. You can follow the trend to short, targeting the previous low.


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