I saw @MatthewHyland_ 's analyses on #BTC Dominance and wanted to re-do it to see for myself, so here it goes.

In 2017, Bitcoin had a 185% run from November 12th to December 7th from $5871 to $16734. During this run, Bitcoin dominance crushed the altcoins as it run from 48.94% to 71.33%.

After December 8th, Bitcoin had new ATHs in the following days, but Bitcoin dominance fell rapidly to 60% and below. On the day of the BTC ATH, BTC.D was in the 59.xx%.

In 2021, Bitcoin dominance was slightly above 60% as Bitcoin was making new ATHs that were only slightly above the prior one (57.5k, 61k, 63.5k). About 2 weeks before the cycle ATH, Bitcoin dominance started going down rapidly and at the time of the ATH it was at 55%.

As the second ATH (69k) that happened at the second half of 2021 was an anomaly (in terms of many things), I will not add the 40-something percent BTC.D into the analysis.

And now we are in 2025. Since November 2024, we had new ATHs that were only slighly higher than the previous one. On the day of the new all-time highs, Bitcoin dominance was at 61.5%, 57.7%, 64.29%, 60.71% and 59.37%.

As I pointed out in my previous analysis on bouncing from the 50W SMA, I'm expecting a Bitcoin cycle high slightly higher than the previous high around 135k.

Comparing with the previous cycles, Bitcoin dominance may stay around 59-60% and start moving lower as Bitcoin runs for a new ATH.

In conclusion, contrary to popular belief, we don't have to wait for Bitcoin to top out for altcoins to run. It has alread come very close to the top - if not the top is in - and altcoins, especially some of them, may outperform Bitcoin from now onwards.

Bitcoin will likely have its cycle top while BTC.D is going down - not UP.